India becomes first country to develop its own system for estimating TB cases

Category : National Published on: April 01 2023

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India has become the first country to develop a country-level mathematical model to estimate the prevalence of tuberculosis (TB) cases in the country.
Using this model, TB incidence and mortality estimate data for India will be available by March every year.
Notably, the data will be released months before the annual World Health Organization (WHO) estimates are released in October.
The model was presented before the delegates from 40 countries taking part in the 36th Stop TB Partnership Board meeting in Varanasi last week.
The new mathematical model was created using data from the natural history of disease, an individual’s infection and disease status, healthcare utilisation, missed or accurate diagnosis, coverage of treatment, and treatment outcomes, such as cure or death.
According to WHO estimates, the TB incidence rate (per 10,000) in India in 2021 was 210. Using the Indian mathematical model, it was estimated to be 196 in 2022.
According to the WHO, the TB mortality rate (per 10,000) in 2021 was estimated to be 35, which decreased to 23 in 2022 as per the Indian model.