The Hindu: Published on 29th Nov 2024:
Why in News?
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's decision to accept a ceasefire with Hezbollah is a significant development in the ongoing conflict. Initially, Israel launched a military operation to reclaim areas in southern Lebanon affected by Hezbollah's rocket attacks on northern Israel. However, after two months of heavy fighting, Netanyahu agreed to a ceasefire, raising questions about the reasons behind this sudden shift in strategy.
Main Reasons for Ceasefire:
Netanyahu provided three key reasons for accepting the ceasefire:
Focus on Iran: A ceasefire would allow Israel to concentrate its resources on countering Iran, a major regional power influencing Hezbollah.
Resupply Forces: The ceasefire would help Israel address the growing fatigue within its military forces, who were dealing with a two-front war.
Isolate Hamas: Netanyahu hoped that halting the fighting with Hezbollah would enable Israel to isolate Hamas in Gaza, shifting focus back to that conflict.
What Events Till Now:
Military Actions: Israel has inflicted significant damage on Hezbollah, including strikes on key infrastructure and leadership. Notably, Hezbollah's stronghold in South Beirut and villages in southern Lebanon were bombed.
Failed Objectives: Despite these efforts, Israel's objectives in Lebanon were not fully met. The Israeli military did not gain significant ground in southern Lebanon and failed to neutralize Hezbollah's rocket capabilities, as evidenced by Hezbollah's continued rocket attacks on Israeli territory, even after intense fighting.
Ceasefire Terms: The ceasefire agreement requires Hezbollah to withdraw its forces north of the Litani River, and Israel will withdraw its forces from southern Lebanon. The Lebanese Army is expected to monitor the ceasefire, but the timeline for withdrawal is 60 days. If Hezbollah violates the ceasefire, Israel reserves the right to resume hostilities.
Heat of War:
Heavy Casualties: Israel faced significant casualties, losing around 35 soldiers in October alone. Unlike in Gaza, where Hamas operates from the ruins of the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah's continued military activity in Lebanon presented Israel with a more intense and organized resistance.
International Pressure: While the U.S. supported Israel's actions in Gaza, there was increasing international pressure on Israel over its operations in Lebanon, particularly from the Biden administration.
Historical Context and Challenges:
2006 Israel-Hezbollah War: The 2006 war ended with a UN resolution demanding Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon and the disarmament of Hezbollah. However, Hezbollah grew stronger in the following years, making any expectation of a Lebanese army-enforced ceasefire problematic.
Current Situation: Although Hezbollah has been weakened, it remains a formidable force. Israel's experience suggests that the Lebanese army may struggle to enforce the ceasefire effectively, as Hezbollah has fortified its position over the years.
Conclusion:
Netanyahu's acceptance of the ceasefire with Hezbollah appears to be a pragmatic move, focusing on broader strategic goals such as addressing Iran and resupplying forces. However, the ceasefire terms and the situation on the ground suggest that this may not be a definitive resolution, as Hezbollah remains a potent threat, and the Lebanese army's ability to enforce the ceasefire is questionable. The ongoing tension and the long-term implications for Israeli security remain uncertain.
