The political deadlock in Taiwan

The political deadlock in Taiwan

Static GK   /   The political deadlock in Taiwan

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The Hindu: Published on 4th June 2025:

 

Why in News? 

On May 20, 2025, Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te completed one year in office amidst significant political turmoil. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), led by Mr. Lai, does not have a majority in the Legislative Yuan, resulting in opposition obstruction by the Kuomintang (KMT). This has triggered large-scale legislative recalls and gridlocks, highlighting deep political fractures in Taiwan's democracy.

 

Background:

Political Structure: Taiwan's Legislative Yuan has 113 seats. A simple majority (57) is required to pass laws effectively.

2024 Election Outcome:

KMT: 52 seats

DPP: 51 seats

Taiwan People’s Party (TPP): 8 seats (aligned with KMT)

Independents: 2 (also KMT-leaning)

 

This gave the opposition (mainly KMT) a working control of the legislature, even though the presidency remained with DPP.

 

Key Issues:

Legislative Deadlock:

KMT has been blocking DPP’s proposed reforms and defense budget plans.

Amendments pushed by KMT shifted financial power back to local governments, limiting central authority.

Legislative overreach, with KMT attempting to force mandatory presidential appearances and Q&A sessions in the Yuan.

 

Democratic Conflict:

Accusations that KMT bypassed legislative protocols when introducing major bills.

Tensions spilled into physical confrontations in parliament.

 

Recall Campaigns:

Citizens initiated recall petitions against 37 KMT and 15 DPP lawmakers.

Accusations of fraud (forged signatures) against KMT may delegitimize their retaliation campaigns.

Recall process entering advanced stages—could lead to mass by-elections.

 

Impact:

On Governance: Severe obstruction in policymaking, especially in national defense—a sensitive issue given China's pressure.

On Democratic Norms: While recalls reflect democratic engagement, they also indicate political instability and institutional fragility.

On KMT’s Standing: Despite 2024 success, KMT risks eroding public trust due to legislative tactics and alleged electoral fraud in recalls.

On DPP's Future: May benefit if recalls lead to favorable by-election outcomes, giving it a legislative majority.

 

International Dimensions: 

China Factor:

KMT favors dialogue with China; DPP remains wary of reunification.

China may exploit political chaos to challenge Taiwan’s legitimacy or test its defense readiness.

U.S. and Allies: Watching closely, given Taiwan’s role in the Indo-Pacific strategic balance.

 

What Lies Ahead:

Scenario 1 – Reconciliation:

Mr. Lai reaches out to the KMT for national interest on defense, legal stability, and governance.

Scenario 2 – Escalation:

DPP supports recalls, aims for a legislative majority in by-elections, reshaping the power balance.

Scenario 3 – Democratic Crisis:

If recalls fail or turn violent, Taiwan’s democratic image could be tarnished internationally.

 

Conclusion:

Taiwan's political deadlock is not just a governance challenge—it is a litmus test for the resilience of its democracy. Whether through consensus or confrontation, the coming months may redefine Taiwan's internal political architecture and its global posture.

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