Why in News?
Israel launched a full-scale air war on Iran on June 13, 2025, claiming it aims to destroy Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. The conflict escalated rapidly with mutual missile strikes, large-scale destruction, and high casualties.
This raises a critical question: What is Israeli PM Netanyahu's strategic objective in this war?
Background:
Iran has been developing its nuclear programme for years, which Israel perceives as an existential threat.
Israel has long sought to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear-armed state.
The IAEA confirmed that Israel’s strikes significantly damaged some Iranian facilities, such as Natanz and Isfahan, but not the highly fortified Fordow plant.
Iran retaliated with around 400 missile and drone attacks on Israeli targets.
Key Developments:
Air Superiority: Israel has aerial dominance over Iranian skies.
Limitations: Israel lacks bunker-buster bombs or long-range strategic bombers needed to destroy Iran's deep underground facilities.
Casualties & Retaliation: Despite killing key Iranian commanders, Iran continues to retaliate, and Israel suffers losses including damage to Ben Gurion airport.
4. Netanyahu’s Possible Endgames:
A. State Collapse / Regime Change
Netanyahu may be seeking complete dismantling of Iran’s regime, not just its nuclear capacity.
He hinted at assassinating Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei to end the war.
Risk: Israeli bombings could strengthen hardline Iranian nationalism rather than weaken the regime.
B. Diplomatic Pressure Tool
Iran may return to nuclear talks via Gulf intermediaries if bombing stops.
U.S. President Trump may use the war as leverage to force Iran to agree to a harsher deal.
Contradiction: Israel began the war days before scheduled U.S.–Iran talks, suggesting diplomacy wasn’t a real priority for Netanyahu.
C. Drag the U.S. into War:
Netanyahu might want to push the U.S. into direct conflict with Iran.
Though Trump claims neutrality, Israel had U.S. support before the attack.
The goal may be to destroy Iran’s nuclear capability with U.S. military intervention or cause regime change with American help.
Regional and Global Implications:
If Iran falls, Israel can reshape West Asia further:
Weaken Iran’s militant allies (Hezbollah, Houthis).
Strengthen its hold over Gaza and West Bank.
Reduce Russia and China’s influence in the region.
Increase U.S.-Gulf Arab strategic dependency.
Critical Assessment:
- Israel’s military campaign alone cannot fully achieve its goals, especially without U.S. participation.
- Prolonged war may result in high domestic and international costs, including further destabilization of the region.
- Diplomacy, though undermined, remains a potential off-ramp if war objectives stall or backfire.
