The Hindu: Published on 8th July 2025:
Why in News?
Israel launched surprise airstrikes on Iran on June 13, 2025, backed by the U.S., marking a significant escalation in West Asia's nuclear geopolitics. The move aims to restrict Iran’s nuclear capabilities amid rising domestic and regional pressures, including stalled negotiations, shifting alliances, and the legacy of the JCPOA.
Background:
Israel’s Goal: To remain the sole nuclear power in the region. PM Benjamin Netanyahu is pushing for complete dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program.
Iran’s Position: Maintains its right to enrichment under the NPT and sees nuclear deterrence as essential, especially after weakening of its regional proxies (Hamas, Hezbollah).
JCPOA (2015): Aimed to restrict Iran’s enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief. Netanyahu opposed it as too lenient.
Triggering Events:
Talks between U.S. and Iran resumed recently around a regional nuclear fuel consortium.
Netanyahu’s domestic troubles (Gaza war, judicial reforms, political opposition) may have motivated the strikes.
IAEA report (May 2025) raised alarm about Iran’s increasing uranium stockpile (400+ kg at 60% enrichment).
U.S. military involvement began with Trump-ordered bunker-buster strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites (Fordow, Natanz) on June 22, following Israel’s lead.
Key Issues:
Israel’s Concerns-
- Wants total elimination of Iran's nuclear capabilities.
- Seeks regime change, using sustained military pressure as leverage.
- Opposes any enrichment rights for Iran under regional consortium.
Iran’s Standpoint-
- Views nuclear deterrence as vital post setbacks in Syria, Gaza, and Lebanon.
- Responded by terminating IAEA inspections and holding firm on enrichment rights.
- Regime change, if it comes, may not weaken nationalism or nuclear ambitions.
U.S. Interests-
- Trump administration backed Israeli strikes.
- Aims for a quick deal to consolidate post-strike gains.
- Seeks to avoid a prolonged conflict due to past experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Global Implications:
- Risk of nuclear escalation in West Asia increases.
- Undermines international nuclear non-proliferation frameworks.
- Gulf countries feel temporarily relieved but remain wary of long-term instability.
- Sets a precedent where military strikes shape diplomacy.
Unresolved Questions:
How much damage was really done to Iran’s underground centrifuge facilities?
What happened to Iran’s 400 kg of enriched uranium?
Will Iran resume talks or escalate further?
Will Netanyahu’s push for regime change gain wider backing or isolate Israel?
Can Trump enforce credible coercion + reassurance, as advised by Thomas Schelling?
Way Forward:
- De-escalation and diplomacy are critical to avoid another prolonged regional war.
- U.S. needs to balance Israel’s hardline stance with its own strategic restraint.
- Restoring trust in the IAEA and NPT is vital.
- A new nuclear framework may be needed, acknowledging current realities but ensuring accountability and restraint.
