The Hindu: Published on 10th July 2025:
Why in News?
Global jet fuel demand recovery is slowing and may not reach pre-pandemic levels in 2024 or even 2025.
This is due to:
Reduced international travel from China
Stricter U.S. immigration policies
Adoption of fuel-efficient aircraft
Background:
Jet fuel makes up about 7% of global fuel consumption.
Aviation is also responsible for about 2.3% of greenhouse gas emissions.
A drop in jet fuel demand:
Reduces overall oil demand
Can cause global oil prices to fall
Positively impacts climate goals
Negatively affects tourism and aviation sectors
Current Situation and Challenges:
Demand Forecast by IEA (International Energy Agency):
Pre-COVID jet fuel demand was 7.9 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2019
IEA now expects demand to reach only 8 million bpd by 2027, much later than expected
Growth was 5.6% last year, but may slow to just 1.3% in 2025 and 2026
China’s Role:
Chinese people are avoiding long-haul flights
Preference for domestic tourism after the pandemic
International flight capacity in China is only 9%, much lower than the U.S.
Post-pandemic fears of getting stranded still persist
United States Impact:
Stricter U.S. immigration rules, especially under former President Trump, are discouraging tourists
Fear of detention and visa rejections have caused a drop in visitors
Analysts predict a 16.3% fall in arrivals to the U.S. in 2025
British travel to the U.S. is also projected to drop by 1.2%
Domestic air travel within the U.S. fell 1.7% in May, the only major market to show decline
Aircraft Fuel Efficiency:
Airlines are investing in modern, fuel-efficient aircraft
Even with same or higher number of flights, fuel use may not rise due to better efficiency
This limits the growth of jet fuel demand even if tourism picks up
Industry Insights and Future Outlook:
J.P. Morgan expects jet fuel demand to stay flat during peak summer travel in 2024
U.S. jet fuel consumption may stabilize at 1.7 million bpd till 2026, down from 2 million bpd seen briefly in May
European demand is also expected to remain steady, with no major growth
Aviation analysts remain cautious due to global economic uncertainty and strict travel rules
China’s Internal Trends:
Although domestic travel in China has returned to 2019 levels, international travel remains low.
People continue to prefer local tourism, avoiding international trips due to previous bad experiences during COVID.
This has slowed the recovery of global aviation demand.
Summary for Exams:
- Jet fuel recovery is weaker than gasoline and diesel post-COVID
- Travel from China and into the U.S. has slowed due to fears and policies
- New aircraft use less fuel, reducing total demand
- Aviation demand is not expected to fully recover till 2027
- Declining fuel demand could reduce global oil prices, affect economies reliant on air travel, and also help reduce emissions.
