The Hindu: Published on 5th June 2025:
Why in News?
The debate over the relevance of global mean temperature targets (like 1.5°C or 2°C) has gained traction, especially after record warm years (2023, 2024) and rising climate disasters. Experts are questioning whether too much focus on long-term warming projections is taking attention away from immediate, actionable climate challenges.
Background:
The Paris Agreement set 2°C as a threshold for "safe" warming, later revised to 1.5°C.
These thresholds originated not from hard climate science but from economic modeling (William Nordhaus, 1970s).
Climate models projecting distant futures (post-2050) rely on uncertain assumptions about future emissions, technologies, and policies.
Key Issues Raised:
Unreliability of Long-term Climate Models: Predictions post-2050 are based on speculative socio-economic pathways.
Obsessive Focus on Global Mean Warming: It may be distracting from urgent needs like localised disaster preparedness and resilience building.
Misplaced Attribution: Many researchers blame disasters on global warming but miss evaluating forecast effectiveness and ground-level disaster management.
Impact / Consequences:
Immediate Local Consequences Ignored: Critical issues like early warning systems, flood management, drought forecasting, etc., may be underfunded or mismanaged.
Confusion in Public Messaging: Mixed signals about crossing 1.5°C cause confusion and dilute urgency in climate communication.
Policy Blind Spots: Countries may delay mitigation and adaptation due to overreliance on abstract global thresholds.
Way Forward / Solutions:
Shift Focus to Near-term Predictions (days to decades) at hyperlocal scales.
Invest in Early Warning Systems, especially in poorer countries (UN's Early Warnings for All program).
Track Forecast Failures and Management Gaps honestly and systematically.
Strengthen local disaster preparedness, adaptation planning, and infrastructure resilience rather than waiting for a specific temperature mark to act.
