The Hindu: Published on 8th Jan 2026:
Why in News?
India’s climate performance is under renewed scrutiny amid:
Evaluation of over 10 years since the Paris Climate Summit commitments,
Ongoing debates around the Aravalli judgment, mining permissions, and protection of ecologically sensitive zones,
Questions over whether headline achievements (emissions intensity, renewable capacity) are translating into real-world emissions reduction,
The urgency created by India’s 2070 net-zero pledge and the critical next five years for course correction.
Background:
At the Paris Climate Summit (2015), India submitted its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), grounded in the principle of Common But Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR). India committed to four quantified targets:
Reduce emissions intensity of GDP by 33–35% by 2030 (from 2005 levels),
Achieve 40% non-fossil fuel power capacity by 2030 (later raised to 50%),
Install 175 GW of renewable energy (by 2022),
Create an additional forest carbon sink of 2.5–3 billion tonnes CO₂e by 2030.
While India historically had low per capita emissions, it is now the world’s third-largest absolute emitter, making outcome-based evaluation essential.
Key Achievements:
1. Emissions Intensity Reduction
Emissions intensity reduced by ~36% by 2020, surpassing the 2030 target a decade early.
Driven by:
Expansion of non-fossil power capacity,
Shift toward services and digital economy,
Energy efficiency schemes like PAT and UJALA.
2. Renewable Energy Capacity Expansion:
Non-fossil capacity grew from ~29.5% (2015) to ~51% (June 2025).
Solar capacity surged from 2.8 GW (2014) to ~111 GW (2025).
India achieved its 40% non-fossil capacity commitment ahead of schedule.
3. Forest Carbon Sink (On Paper)
India added ~2.29 billion tonnes CO₂e since 2005, nearing its sequestration target.
Official data suggests numerical compliance with the forest sink goal.
Key Concerns and Challenges:
1. Incomplete Decoupling
Despite falling emissions intensity, absolute emissions remain high:
~2,959 MtCO₂e in 2020, with no sustained decline afterward.
GDP growth has outpaced emissions growth, leading to relative but not absolute decoupling.
High-emission sectors like steel, cement, and transport continue to grow.
Coal remains dominant, limiting real emissions reduction.
2. Capacity vs Generation Gap:
Although non-fossil capacity exceeds 50%, renewables contributed only ~22% of electricity generation (2024–25).
Coal (~240–253 GW capacity) continues to supply over 70% of electricity, due to:
Intermittency of solar and wind,
Low capacity factors,
Lack of large-scale energy storage.
3. Energy Storage Bottleneck:
Required storage by 2029–30: 336 GWh (CEA estimate),
Operational storage (Sept 2025): ~500 MWh — a massive shortfall.
Without storage, renewables cannot replace coal baseload.
4. Forest Governance Gaps:
“Forest cover” definition includes plantations and monocultures, diluting ecological value.
Minimal increase in actual forest area (+156 sq km between 2021–23).
₹95,000 crore CAMPA funds show uneven utilisation across States.
Plantation-driven sequestration prioritises carbon accounting over biodiversity restoration.
5. Climate Stress on Ecosystems:
Warming, water stress, and changing rainfall threaten carbon assimilation, especially in:
Western Ghats,
Northeast India.
“Greening” does not necessarily translate into long-term ecological resilience.
Policy and Governance Issues
Lack of a clear coal phase-down roadmap,
Fragmented coordination across:
Energy storage,
Transmission upgrades,
Land acquisition,
Weak transparency in sectoral and regional emissions data,
Regulatory dilution risks in ecologically sensitive zones (e.g., Aravallis).
Way Forward / Road Ahead:
Translate Intensity Gains into Absolute Reductions
Set sector-wise emissions caps,
Accelerate industrial decarbonisation.
Bridge the Storage–Generation Gap
Fast-track battery and pumped storage projects,
Strengthen grid integration and forecasting systems.
Develop a Just Coal Transition Plan
Clear timelines for coal phase-down,
Worker reskilling and regional transition packages.
Reform Forest Governance:
Prioritise natural regeneration over plantations,
Improve CAMPA fund utilisation and accountability.
Strengthen Data Transparency
Public dashboards for sectoral emissions,
Independent audits of climate outcomes.
Conclusion:
India has largely delivered on the letter of its Paris commitments, especially in emissions intensity and installed renewable capacity. However, headline success masks structural weaknesses:
Absolute emissions continue to rise, Coal remains the backbone of electricity, Forest targets rely more on accounting than ecology.
The real test lies ahead — in converting installed capacity into sustained clean generation, and relative efficiency gains into absolute emissions moderation. The next five years will be decisive in determining whether India’s climate transition is performative or transformative.
