The Hindu: Published on 11th June 2025:
Why in News?
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s foreign policy has once again drawn global attention due to his strategic balancing act between Islamist ambitions and Western alliances. His efforts to revive Türkiye’s regional dominance, inspired by Ottoman-era ideologies, have intensified following key geopolitical events in West Asia, Syria, and the Caucasus.
Background:
Modern Turkey was established in 1923 under Mustafa Kemal Ataturk with a secular and western-oriented foreign policy doctrine.
Post World War II, Türkiye joined NATO, aligning itself with the Western bloc.
Erdogan’s AKP (Justice and Development Party), in power since 2002, initially maintained this legacy but gradually shifted toward an Islamist and neo-Ottoman orientation, especially after the Arab Spring (2010s).
Key Features of Erdogan’s Neo-Ottoman Foreign Policy:
Islamist Orientation: Focus on supporting Islamist groups like Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and HTS in Syria.
Regional Expansionism: Military and strategic influence expanded in Qatar, Syria, Libya, Azerbaijan, and support to Pakistan.
Mixed with Pragmatism: Despite the Islamist lean, Türkiye maintained NATO ties, allowed U.S. bases, and balanced diplomacy with both Russia and the West.
Military Assertiveness: Armed support to allies like Azerbaijan, drone exports, and opposition to Kurdish influence near borders.
Geo-strategic Repositioning: Positioning Türkiye as a power broker between the West and Muslim world.
Strategic Gains:
Syria: Erdogan-backed HTS captured Damascus in 2024, marking a strategic win.
Caucasus: Backing Azerbaijan over Armenia brought Türkiye closer to dominance in the region.
NATO: Erdogan used Türkiye’s position in NATO to extract concessions, like during Sweden and Finland’s membership.
Libya: Türkiye backs the Tripoli government for influence in North Africa.
Gulf: Strong relations with Qatar, improving ties with Saudi Arabia and UAE.
Domestic Implications:
Power Consolidation: Erdogan converted Türkiye into an executive presidency, centralizing authority.
Democratic Backslide: Suppression of media, opposition leaders like Ekrem Imamoglu, and civil liberties.
Economic Strain: Hyperinflation, currency depreciation, and rising unemployment threaten internal stability.
Key Issues and Criticism:
Authoritarian Drift: Critics warn of Türkiye becoming an Islamist-authoritarian state under Erdogan.
Uncertain Alliances: While Türkiye engages the West and Russia, it risks alienating both through contradictory policies.
Volatile Outcomes: Gains in Syria and Libya remain unstable. Mistrust continues in Gulf and Europe.
Economic Fragility: Long-term foreign policy success may be undermined by economic mismanagement and unrest.
Broader Impact:
Türkiye is now a multi-vector player, using religion, history, and realpolitik to shape a regional power role.
Its actions affect Middle East dynamics, NATO’s internal coherence, Eurasian geopolitics, and India-Pakistan narratives (given pro-Pakistan stance).
The neo-Ottoman tilt, if unchecked, could disrupt the secular and democratic fabric of Turkish statecraft.
Conclusion:
Erdogan’s foreign policy is an ambitious project that seeks to reclaim Türkiye’s historical influence while navigating 21st-century power politics. However, its sustainability depends on economic revival, domestic political openness, and strategic consistency in dealing with both East and West.
