The Hindu: Published on 20th March 2025:
Why in News?
India eagerly awaits the summer monsoon forecast, as it plays a crucial role in agriculture and water management. Recent predictions suggested a strong La Niña for 2024-2025, which typically brings above-normal rainfall to India. However, unusual sea surface temperature (SST) patterns have created confusion, making it difficult to determine whether La Niña will fully develop.
What are El Niño and La Niña?
- El Niño: A phenomenon where the eastern Pacific Ocean experiences warmer-than-normal temperatures, leading to weaker monsoons and droughts in India.
- La Niña: A condition where the eastern Pacific Ocean experiences cooler-than-normal temperatures, which usually brings stronger monsoons and excess rainfall in India.
Historically, El Niño has been linked to weaker monsoons, while La Niña has led to stronger rainfall in India. However, recent climate patterns have deviated from traditional trends.
Unusual Climate Patterns in 2024-2025-
Early 2024 predictions indicated a strong La Niña, but SST patterns unexpectedly shifted.
Normally, La Niña features cooler temperatures in the eastern Pacific, but this time, the cooling has moved westward.
Wind patterns have also been unusual – strong easterly winds in the central-western Pacific and westerly winds in the eastern Pacific.
Such an SST pattern has rarely been observed before, leaving scientists puzzled about its long-term impact.
Is This a Sign of Climate Change?
2023 and 2024 recorded some of the highest global temperatures in history.
Typically, El Niño and La Niña peak between December and February, influencing the following monsoon season.
However, this time, the SST patterns have not followed the usual transition.
A new climatic factor from the Southern Hemisphere (ENSO Transition Mode) is likely delaying La Niña’s full formation.
Impact on the Indian Monsoon-
Despite a strong El Niño in 2023, India’s monsoon was surprisingly normal.
Scientists believe this was due to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which may have balanced El Niño’s negative effects.
In 2025, monsoon forecasts remain unclear, with some models predicting La Niña, others suggesting normal monsoons, and a few indicating a return of El Niño.
Jet stream variations and pre-monsoon cyclones may further influence monsoon onset and intensity.
Farmers and policymakers must prepare for uncertainty while hoping for favorable monsoon conditions.
What’s Next?
- Climate scientists are conducting extensive research on the new El Niño and La Niña patterns.
- The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) must enhance forecasting accuracy to better predict monsoon variations.
- India’s water and agricultural policies must adapt to unpredictable climate trends.
"In an era of uncertain climate forecasts, the best strategy is to be well-prepared for all possibilities."
