The Hindu: Published on 2nd May 2025:
Why in News?
India recently announced that it would hold the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in abeyance following the terror attack in Pahalgam on April 22, 2025.
This declaration raised questions about the legality of unilaterally suspending or terminating the treaty, and its potential repercussions for Pakistan, which is highly dependent on the Indus basin for agriculture and energy.
Legal Framework:
a) Indus Waters Treaty, 1960
Brokered by the World Bank, it divides the rivers between the two countries:
India gets: Ravi, Beas, Sutlej (Eastern rivers) – full control
Pakistan gets: Indus, Jhelum, Chenab (Western rivers) – exclusive usage rights with limited Indian rights
Article XII of IWT:
Treaty can’t be unilaterally altered
Termination only via mutual agreement (ratified treaty)
b) Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties (VCLT), 1969
Not formally ratified by India or Pakistan, but recognized as customary international law
Article 62 allows treaty suspension or termination only under “fundamental change of circumstances”, with very strict criteria.
c) “Abeyance” vs. “Suspension”
“Abeyance” is not a legal term under international law; India may have intended “suspension”.
Suspension ≠ Termination — it only halts obligations temporarily.
Can India Suspend It Unilaterally?
Legally, No. IWT requires both parties’ consent for termination.
Even suspension requires justification, such as a fundamental change in circumstances, which is difficult to prove.
The ICJ in earlier rulings (e.g., Gabcíkovo-Nagymaros Project Case) set a high bar for such claims.
How Will It Affect Pakistan?
Critical dependency:
80% of agriculture
33% of hydropower relies on Indus basin
India’s current infrastructure:
Lacks major storage capacity on western rivers
Mostly run-of-the-river hydro plants → cannot block large water flows
Potential disruptions:
Water unpredictability → agricultural crisis
Sudden releases (drawdown flushing) could cause flooding downstream
Economic and social instability in Pakistan’s agrarian regions
Diplomatic and Strategic Implications:
Move likely to escalate tensions between India and Pakistan.
Raises concerns at international platforms like the UN and World Bank.
Could trigger retaliatory political or military actions from Pakistan.
May affect India’s international image regarding treaty obligations and soft power.
