The Hindu: Published on 14th Oct 2025.
Why in News?
On October 11–12, 2025, major clashes erupted along the Durand Line between Pakistan and Afghanistan (Taliban regime) resulting in heavy casualties on both sides.
This marks one of the most significant and violent confrontations between the two countries since the Taliban took power in 2021.
The clashes reflect a deepening rift in what was once considered a close political and strategic relationship.
What Happened:
Pakistan’s military reported precision airstrikes and raids targeting “Taliban camps, training facilities and terrorist support networks” inside Afghanistan.
Afghanistan (Taliban) retaliated, claiming it was a response to Pakistan’s earlier air raids on October 9 in Kabul and Paktika provinces.
Taliban’s Defence Ministry warned that if Pakistan violates Afghan territory again, they would “respond firmly.”
Following the violence, Pakistan closed its border crossings with Afghanistan.
Background:
Pakistan had supported and nurtured the Taliban since the 1990s for strategic depth against India.
However, after the Taliban returned to power in 2021, their relations with Pakistan began deteriorating, mainly due to differences over:
Support for the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP),
Border management along the Durand Line, and
Taliban’s independent foreign policy outreach towards India, China, and Russia.
The Durand Line (2,640 km) dividing the Pashtun tribal areas remains disputed by Afghanistan.
Geopolitical Context:
The first Pakistani airstrikes occurred in Kabul and Paktika on October 9.
Kabul is close to Pakistan’s Khyber P:khtunkhwa (KP) province, allowing possible air incursions.
The October 11–12 clashes spanned a wide front — from Chitral (north) to Waziristan (south) — showing the seriousness of the confrontation.
Key Causes of Tension:
(a) Power Perception Gap:
Pakistan still sees the Taliban as a vassal or subordinate regime, while the Taliban now views itself as independent and sovereign.
(b) Support to TTP:
Pakistan accuses the Taliban of sheltering Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants, responsible for terror attacks in Pakistan.
(c) Weak Civil-Military Balance in Pakistan:
Pakistan’s military dominates foreign policy on Afghanistan, with little civilian or parliamentary oversight, leading to a hardline stance.
(d) Deportation of Afghan Refugees:
Since 2023, Pakistan has been deporting Afghan refugees, including registered ones, which the Taliban and UN agencies have condemned.
(e) Closure of Trade Borders:
Pakistan frequently closes major trade points — Torkham and Chaman — to pressure Afghanistan.
For landlocked Afghanistan, these crossings are economic lifelines.
Role of Other Powers:
China: Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Kabul (Aug 2025) promising investment in mining and infrastructure.
Russia: Formally recognized the Taliban regime (July 2025).
India: Hosted Afghanistan’s Foreign Minister during the clashes — viewed by Islamabad as a provocation.
Taliban’s growing ties with New Delhi, Moscow, and Beijing indicate its foreign policy independence, which Pakistan resents.
Strategic Implications:
The clashes signal the end of Pakistan’s control over the Taliban.
Afghanistan is diversifying its diplomatic and economic partners.
Pakistan may lose its strategic depth in Afghanistan, a concept central to its military doctrine since the 1980s.
The violence could destabilize the Pakistan–Afghanistan border region, affecting South Asian and Central Asian security.
The refugee crisis and cross-border militancy may worsen.
Domestic Impact on Pakistan:
Pakistan faces multiple internal challenges:
Terrorist resurgence in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.
Economic crisis and IMF dependence.
Civil-military tension within its political system.
The military’s aggressive Afghan policy could deepen instability and anti-Pakistan sentiment among Pashtuns.
International Reactions:
The UN Human Rights Council criticized Pakistan’s refugee deportations.
Regional observers fear the conflict could spill over into neighbouring countries.
China and Russia are likely to mediate quietly to prevent further escalation.
Future Outlook:
Relations are likely to remain tense and confrontational unless:
Both sides engage in bilateral dialogue over TTP and border management.
Pakistan reduces its military dominance over Afghan policy.
Taliban balances its foreign policy between independence and pragmatism.
The current situation could reshape South Asian geopolitics, reducing Pakistan’s traditional influence in Kabul.
Summary Insight:
The Pakistan–Taliban conflict represents a historic realignment.
Pakistan’s attempt to keep Afghanistan under its strategic shadow has backfired.
The Taliban’s assertive independence, links with India, China, and Russia, and Pakistan’s internal fragility are creating a new regional order in South-Central Asia.
